Are we still taking cocoa, one of our lives’ smallest but loveliest luxuries, for granted? Even with all the commotion about the cocoa shortage? Because the shock is still palpable when chocolate lovers encounter products that once contained cocoa but now use substitutes like carob or lucuma – or a reduced amount of cocoa overall. The less pleasant yet inescapable reality the world is confronting is that cocoa is dwindling. Naturally, shortages have driven both demand and prices upward, with cocoa prices nearly tripling over the past three years and hitting new peaks in late 2024. For now, chocolatiers and consumers alike are taking comfort in the fact that prices are finally starting to ease slightly. But that doesn’t mean it’s going to be raining cocoa anytime soon. The very factors that have led to reductions in cocoa supplies across African countries persist, with droughts, heatwaves, and abnormally heavy rains wreaking havoc on West African harvests – which account for more than 70% of the global cocoa production.
Manufacturers aren’t only pushed to raise the prices of their cocoa-based products and chocolate. They’re forced to open their businesses to the latest trends in chocolatery, many of which have stemmed and gained traction precisely because of the global struggle to maintain cocoa production. Even the biggest chocolate brands are reinventing themselves, developing innovative recipes, textures, aromas, and even new consumption styles. The nutritional profile is also changing. The intake of minerals like magnesium, phosphorus, and iron from cocoa is being supplemented – or replaced – by alternative ingredients. Lucuma, for instance, is rich in beta-carotene, potassium, and vitamins like niacin, and is increasingly finding its way on market shelves.
There’s a cocoa revolution unfolding before our eyes. And many are wondering just how far it will go. Could we be heading toward a cocoa-free world – at least when it comes to the everyday products that fill supermarket shelves? What’s really happening?
Why cocoa is in crisis
The cocoa struggle isn’t one, single event, but a confluence of factors. Two countries, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, account for ~60% of the global cocoa supply, and both have suffered huge setbacks: cocoa swollen-shoot virus, aging trees, illegal gold mining, abnormal weather patterns, and more. A study found that a 2024 heatwave in West Africa was made ten times more likely due to climate change, putting cocoa trees under extreme stress.
This combination of environmental, agronomic and economic pressures led to dropping cocoa supplies in times when demand remained resilient. Indeed, cocoa futures jumped by large amounts in late 2023 and 2024, reflecting the concern. Phenomena like these raise a pressing question: could we move toward a world where traditional cocoa becomes so scarce or so costly that alternatives or substitutes become the norm?
The emerging business opportunities
For businesses, including product manufacturers, confectioneries, chocolate brands, and cafes, the changing state of the cocoa market can be a blessing when approached strategically. It’s easier to find and collaborate with the best cocoa suppliers, namely those with ethical sourcing strategies, strong sustainability practices, verified transparency, and direct engagement with farmers. The right cocoa supplier will promote and invest in agroforestry and contribute to climate resilience. Even better, they utilize technological advancements like hybrid seedlings that combat diseases like the aforementioned cocoa swollen-shoot virus. With tighter supplies, increased prices, and consumers who are more attentive than ever at what they’re consuming, sourcing cocoa wholesale from reliable suppliers becomes crucial.
Overall, businesses that treat cocoa as a strategic ingredient, rather than just a resource that generates profit, are better positioned to thrive in a world where cocoa is increasingly valued.
Two ways to secure your edge
Here are two of the main strategies successful ventures in the cocoa and chocolate segment are expected to do in order to survive and thrive:
- Add value instead of conducting trades. Rather than simply selling chocolate bars, businesses like yours can bring a unique twist to their products through stories that touch and sell (e.g., ensure bean-to-bar transparency and let the trader’s story be known), ethical sourcing, or premium positioning. Customers may tolerate higher prices when they perceive value.
- Ensure supply 24/24 and build relationships. By establishing healthy long-term relationships with reliable partners, diversifying sourcing regions beyond cocoa’s main parent West Africa, and building buffer stocks where feasible, you can rest assured knowing you’ll overcome unpreventable challenges.
Arising alternatives
In response to the ongoing chaos, future-oriented companies are pioneering cocoa-free options that mimic the texture, taste, and melting properties of everyday chocolate, but use sustainable and ethically sourced ingredients that ease the pressure on the already strained cocoa industry. You can find today cocoa-free chocolate with upcycled grape seeds and sunflower protein as a base. Or, even better, chocolate made mainly from the carob pod – a Mediterranean plant that creates a leathery pod with sweet seeds. Pioneers in the sector – such as ofi – offer alternatives like these, along with everything from product sourcing to assistance in recipe development and market insights.
Collaborations with innovators like these allow businesses to remain relevant and sustainable while creating products that meet emerging consumer demands.
Side note: The emerging alternatives for cocoa aren’t 1-1, and they’re not even supposed to replicate cocoa 100%. They come with unique characteristics that, once leveraged, can create new, scrumptious end products that evolve into a new category of goods. They’re vital in a world where cocoa is increasingly valued, and scarce. Not to mention that substituents like these can meet the rising demand for plant-based and allergen-free products.
Conclusion
The cocoa industry may be facing some unwelcome challenges, but by remaining innovative and adaptable, businesses like yours can find the pathways to a sustainable future. Embrace change and invest in sustainable practices, and you’ll not only navigate the crisis and continue to delight consumers with chocolate in its endless forms, but also offer the inspiration other struggling businesses need.
