For those who have been following football for a long time, the saying: “Football is not over until the referee blows the final whistle” is probably no stranger. And in the betting world, that spirit is most clearly demonstrated through a type of bet that seems small but has “shocked” many times for both veteran bettors and newcomers:late goal bet.
And the interesting thing is, in the era of VAR, long injury time and teams “playing until their last breath”, 90+ minute goals are becoming… surprisingly frequent.
What is late goal betting?
Not in the popular betting groups such as over/under, Asia or score,late goal betis the choice for those who dare to bet on… the last moment of the match, where a cross, a bad clearance, or even just a small mistake from the defense can turn everything around in just a few seconds.
Simply put,late goal betis bet that There will be at least one goal scored in the final period of the match., usually calculated from minute 85 or 88 onwards, depending on how each bookmaker sets it up.
There are two main forms that Fun88 stated as follows:
- Goal after 85th or 88th minute
- Goal in extra time (90+1 to 90+X)
Odds are usually from 2.10 to 5.00, depending on the match progress, current number of goals and situation between the two teams.
For example, if the match is tied 1-1 at minute 88, and you bet on “Next goal in injury time”, then if one of the two teams scores in minute 90+, you win the bet.
Why are late goal bets becoming more and more attractive?
VAR and extended injury time
For the 2023/24 season onwards, FIFA and major federations have asked referees plus actual dead ball time– resulting in injury time that can last up to 7–10 minutes, or even more.
In the 2024/25 Premier League season, each match will have an average of 8 minutes of injury time(according to data from Opta). That is, about 10% of the match time… is after the 90th minute.
That means you’re not betting on a single moment, but on a… mini-match that lasts almost an extra period.
Modern football intensity: pressure to the last minute
In the era of pressing football, no team is willing to stop until the result is certain. Going all out in the final minutes to find the decisive goal has become a strategy. Teams like Arsenal, Leverkusen, Napoli, or Girona have all scored this season.more than 10 goals from minute 85 onwards– not a small number.
Late tactical changes
Many modern coaches use substitutions in the 89th–90th minute to bring on players with pace and good finishing skills to create a late surprise. Just one fresh player against a tired defence can make all the difference in the final few minutes.
What does the data show? Late goals are no longer a surprise
Notable statistics from the 5 major European leagues in the 2024/25 season:
| Tournament | Percentage of matches with goals from the 85th minute onwards | Average late goals/match |
| Premier League | 36% | 0.24 |
| Bundesliga | 33% | 0.22 |
| Serie A | 29% | 0.19 |
| The League | 28% | 0.17 |
| Ligue 1 | 32% | 0.20 |
With over a third of Premier League games having at least one goal from the 85th minute onwards, you can seelate goal betIt is by no means a game of “late game luck”. It is a tactical trend, reflecting the pace of modern football.
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When should you bet on late goals?
The match was a draw and both teams needed 3 points.
This is the most typical situation. When the game is tied 1-1 or 0-0, both teams come out high in the end to win the game. A corner, a poor pressing from the defense, or just a sudden long-range shot – all can score in injury time.
One team is leading closely, the opponent is pushing hard
When the score is 2-1 or 1-0, the winning team usually retreats deep and counterattacks. The losing team puts all their strength into attacking. The difference in defense – physical strength – space will open up countless scenarios.
The rate of late goals scored by counter-attacking teams like Atletico Madrid, Sociedad, Lazio is very high in this situation.
The presence of “super sub”
Some players are famous for their ability to score late on: Trossard (Arsenal), Joselu (Real Madrid), Pavlidis (AZ Alkmaar). If you see them coming on in the 80–85th minute, and the game is still “open”, that’s a great sign to come on.late goal bet.
When should you not bet on late goals?
The match is slow or already decided
If the match is “satisfied with the score” – for example, in the second leg of a European Cup when the team is leading 2-0 in the first leg, or both teams are no longer motivated – then the chance of a late goal is almost zero. The match is just over, the players do not want to get injured.
The two teams make defensive substitutions.
If the coaches of both sides change defenders and bring in midfielders to recover the ball in the 80-85th minute, it is a signal to “lock the game” and not to find the next goal.
Referees tend to blow their whistles early, with little overtime added.
Some referees in La Liga or Serie A tend to add less time (2–4 minutes), and even blow the final whistle as soon as the clock hits 90+X. You can search referee information to see who has strict “time discipline”, avoid betting late in the matches they referee.
How to play late goal bets for beginners
- Wait until minute 80 or later to start betting.– watch the game, which team is pressing, who just entered the field
- If the odds for “late goal” are above 3.5 but the match is still open, consider bold – small risk, big reward
- Follow live action, especially the shots on target and corner kicks
- Don’t go all-in.– consider it as a side bet to “recover” or break out, not the main bet
- Combined with the final corner over bet– If the losing team is pressing the field, the possibility of both a corner and a goal is very high.
Typical matches with late goals in the 2024/25 season
| Match | Minute goal | Result | Odds if betting on minute 85+ |
| Arsenal vs Brentford | 90+7 | 2-1 | 4.20 |
| Leverkusen vs Mainz | 90+3 | 3-2 | 3.85 |
| Napoli vs Fiorentina | 89 | 1-0 | 3.00 |
| Girona vs Atletico | 90+2 | 4-3 | 4.75 |
| Brighton vs Wolves | 90+5 | 2-2 | 4.10 |
Last minute explosions not only change the outcome of the match, but also are a “comeback” for players who know how to choose the golden moment.
Conclude
Late goal betis a living testament to the “don’t leave your seat before the 95th minute”. In modern football, the final 5–10 minutes can contain more emotion and action than the previous 80 minutes. For new players, this is a potentially lucrative bet – not too difficult to read, no early betting requirements, and a high reward if you understand how to observe, bide your time, and believe in the madness of the endgame.
Because sometimes, the real game… only starts at the 90+3 minute. And that’s when you start winning.
