Think about the possibility of betting on sports, but add the risk of the fact that you may need to set yourself up for a sustainable way to do so. It’s a requirement for anyone looking to enjoy wagering without having to sacrifice funds in any way.
At the same time, the purpose is to make successful predictions with the bets that you place. The satisfaction comes from more than just winning the money provided by these bets, but also from proving to yourself that your guesses were correct. When you go with the hunch, you prove yourself that your instinct carried the day, or that you were outright lucky.
However, racking up some consistency in how you win with your bets is a method of validating your own decision-making. From research, constant eye testing, to market exploration, you prove to yourself that you have a sound process that leads to successful outcomes.
Even this type of thinking leads to a strategy, and the results vary even then. Despite this type of uncertainty, you owe it to yourself to make all the necessary checks for as careful a betting process as you can muster.
In the interest of what we consider a positive choice in the spirit of responsible betting, we will provide you with some valuable directions to follow before you decide to stake on a match.
Think about the bets you can place with those funds
Let’s address how you should approach the idea of using your money. It can go in multiple directions, which is why it’s worth discussing this particular detail before getting into even more types of advice.
Firstly, you’ll want to think about whether you want to bet on sports that you know and are aware of, or if you want to go about and find betting opportunities with specifically beneficial odds. It may sound counterintuitive to go for the latter example, but some bettors prefer to seek the upside of certain opportunities.
Secondly, you’ll want to set yourself up for understanding and using the markets. This means looking at moneylines, spreads, and propositions. If you know how teams perform collectively but not much else, you should stick to parlays at best. Knowing more than just standard information can lead to props, especially if they are worth it.
Before we move on, we’d like to mention the idea of bankroll management. You are in a position where you will use your money for something that has no guarantee of winning, let alone profit, which shouldn’t even be your priority in the first place.
As such, always remember to be as disciplined with how you create your budget as possible. Moreover, consider your staking process in order to bet only with disposable income without overextending yourself or placing too few bets and burning through your budget.
Get a detailed idea about what the odds indicate
When you see the odds laid out on a specific gambling platform, you see more than just the implied probability. You see the sentiment about specific outcomes given the available information, but you’re also seeing what the public may feel like. Oddsmakers make sure to use as much information, including contextual data, in order to safeguard their interests. Moreover, they add the vigorish to the mix, giving them an edge that makes them a modicum of money with every bet that you place.
This is why the implied probability of a sports outcome is not direct equal in value when it comes to online betting. You should think about the margin as an additional 3-5% (in normal cases) to the total of 100% that outcome probabilities would imply.
In general, betting platforms try to spread the vigorish across outcomes. As such, you would get a mark-up on any bet. However, there are cases when bookies overleverage themselves or just make poor decisions. In such cases, the vigorish percentage may be misplaced, which means that an outcome is particularly attractive as a betting possibility.
If you want to check such a detail, you should be looking at personal or outsider resources. If you’re into statistical probability and know how to calculate implied probabilities for specific match outcomes, you can set your own prices.
Based on specific formulas that convert implied probabilities into odds (and the other way), you can see if there are odds from any bookmaker that fit your price, or if it gets close to it. You can also use the Betonvalue model that finds and compares odds from various sportsbooks, including for arbitrage opportunities.
Check the match-day context and recent data
Once you are aware of how things look in terms of odds and pricing, you may want to look at the context behind the match. This means that you should rely on information about various factors, including those that have to do with the teams/athletes themselves, but also on environment factors.
The role of stadium atmosphere in sports psychology is a very well-known phenomenon, hence the idea of fans being extremely important. Moreover, specific communities have very close connections to their teams and athletes, giving a very powerful atmospheric value to the mix.
Weather plays just as important a role, especially in specific circumstances. The idea is that some playing styles do not translate into specific types of weather if it’s played outside. While the ascension of domes with retractable roofs negates some of them, there are still cases when quarterbacks with weaker arms do not do well in games with windy weather.
At the same time, injuries and morale issues are some of the smoke that can indicate a fire. If there are reports of dysfunction, you can be quite sure that it will be part of how that team plays. Moreover, injury updates, especially with labels like ‘Questionable’ or ‘Doubtful,’ can signal several contextual elements worth noting.
Evaluate your process based on the line value
In plenty of cases, the odds that you see when the betting lines open are not the same as when they close. This is a normal situation if you think about the implications, but it doesn’t mean that it’s an automatic one. It’s an accumulation of factors that can change throughout the build-up of an event.
The most emblematic examples are those when injuries or other team-altering reports come into play right before the lines close. The oddsmakers will always react because it’s in the interest of their own profits. As long as the vectors that lead to certain results change, there will always be something difficult in the mix.
However, there are also cases when the market simply moves in a certain direction. Mass betting on an outcome will lead to modified odds. Sharp bettors, those whales that have a background in moving the markets with great track records, also influence bookies, especially if they are in consensus with their bets.
If you want to check your process, you should see how the closing line shifts. If it moved in a less appealing direction, it means that you were ahead of the curve. If it moves even farther than you found it, it means that you were either unlucky or just hasty.
Conclusion: Keep things under control by betting responsibly
Lastly, you should keep your betting under wraps for the sake of a safe gambling experience. Set yourself a budget that we’ve talked about with bankroll management, make sure to stake at a reasonable rate, and never let gambling get the best of you. Bet responsibly!
